<p id="dzbhp"><track id="dzbhp"><span id="dzbhp"></span></track></p>

      <track id="dzbhp"><big id="dzbhp"></big></track>

        <thead id="dzbhp"></thead>

            <rp id="dzbhp"></rp>

            <track id="dzbhp"><big id="dzbhp"><progress id="dzbhp"></progress></big></track>
            <ruby id="dzbhp"><rp id="dzbhp"></rp></ruby>
            <track id="dzbhp"></track>
            <output id="dzbhp"><strike id="dzbhp"></strike></output><i id="dzbhp"><strike id="dzbhp"></strike></i>
            搜索 解放軍報

            Political instability in Japan exacerbates anti-China bluster

            日本政情動蕩加劇反華氣焰

            來源:China Military Online責任編輯:Li Jiayao
            2021-09-08 17:44

            吳懷中

            By Wu Huaizhong

            日本選舉季正在跌宕中展開。這種政情動蕩會否導致中日關系雪上加霜,值得關注。至少2020年春夏至今,日本政情就是造成兩國關系持續震蕩并不斷下滑的重要原因。中日關系發展苦于日方政情政局,已非時短。

            Japan is in the middle of an eventful election season. Whether its political instability will further freeze China-Japan relations is worth noting. From the spring of 2020 to the present day, at least, the political situation in Japan is an important reason for the unending undulation and continuous fall of bilateral relations, a problem that has dragged on for a long time.

            右翼和鷹派勢力坐大逞強

            Right-wingers and Hawkish forces grow in strength

            盡管日本政壇過往不時冒出針對中日關系的不和諧聲音,但近期自民黨內某些勢力的負面言行已嚴重踩線越界。不可否認,國際政治環境尤其美國“拉日制華”、日本國內輿情氛圍等,誘使自民黨某些勢力在對華關系上示強逞硬。

            While there used to be cacophony in the Japanese political circle against China-Japan relations in the past, the recent negative words and deeds of certain forces within the Liberal Democratic Party have far crossed the line. There is no denying that the international political environment, especially America’s efforts to “rope in Japan to confront China”, and the public opinions within Japan have lured some Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) forces to put up a tough stance against China.

            安倍執政期間有著較強的黨政控局能力,“一強”地位加之“以右制右”,使其大致能駕馭右翼或強硬勢力,把控在對華態度上高度復雜的國內政壇。其后繼者菅義偉無派非閥,登臺是黨內各派系博弈妥協的結果,執政以來盡顯黨政雙弱、控局乏力等短板,導致黨內外右翼與鷹派勢力坐大逞強。

            Abe, while in office, was good at controlling intra-party politics. His dominant position and his tactic of “curbing the rightists with the rightists” enabled him to put a curb on the right-wing or hawkish forces and control the highly complicated domestic political circle in relation to China. In contrast, Yoshihide Suga has no faction affiliation and his election was purely the result of the game of the various forces within LDP. Since he took office, Suga’s weakness both in the party and the government and his inability to control the situation have been fully exposed, which has led to the growth of right-wing and hawkish forces both in and out of LDP.

            菅義偉開始執政時,曾一再表示要構筑穩定的中日關系,但結果是這一年來的中日關系嚴重倒退。菅作為務實派政治家,并無明顯意識形態色彩,亦無系統對外戰略和外交經驗,中日關系在其任內糟糕于斯,很大程度上是因為他作為弱勢黨魁和首相,需要迎合黨內外強勢的新老保守右翼勢力的訴求,以部分讓渡外交和安全政策主導權換取相應的執政支持和背書。

            When he came in power, Suga repeatedly expressed his wish to foster a stable relationship with China, only to see it on a sharp downcurve in the past year. As a pragmatic politician, Suga is neither ideologically oriented nor systematically experienced in foreign strategy and diplomacy. That the China-Japan relation has fallen to a record low during his term is to a large extent because Suga, as a weak party leader and prime minister, has to cater to the demands of the aggressive and conservative right-wingers inside and outside the LDP, and give up some power over diplomatic and security policies in exchange for their support and endorsement.

            中日關系經歷“范式之變”

            The “change of paradigm” of China-Japan relations

            當前,日本選戰正趨激烈,勝負未明,但至少可觀察到,參選群體作為中生代或少壯派政治家代表,親美保守、對華抗衡是基調,或者即便本人相對溫和穩健,但為在當下氛圍中造勢拉票,也要對華示強示硬。

            Japan is in the middle of an intense election. The result isn’t clear yet, but we can at least discern that the candidates, representing the young and assertive politicians, are generally conservative, pro-America and anti-China. Even if they are personally moderate, they have to act tough on China to win more votes in the current political mood.

            因而,日本政情及其變化正對中日關系產生越來越多直接沖擊和肆意干擾,日方也不再因中方感受或抗議而加以節制收斂。這實際是當下中日關系“范式之變”的一種體現,即雙方的基本相處之道或關系模式由于日本內政因素而發生重要改變。

            Therefore, the Japanese political situation and its changes are exerting more direct impacts and interference on China-Japan relations, and Tokyo no longer restrains itself because of China’s feelings or protests. This reflects a “change of paradigm” in bilateral relations – their way of dealing with each other or the mode of their relations have seen important changes due to political factors on the part of Japan.

            轉進改善才是中日關系正解

            Improving China-Japan relations the only right way forward

            “后菅義偉”時代的中日關系,普遍被認為是消極連續性更強,改善空間有限,重大拐點難現。并且,日本體制缺陷也助長了這一態勢?!盁o責任中樞”被認為是日本獨特的政治文化和體質特性,即明知事態朝著不好方向發展,卻無人舍我做出決斷,挺身力挽狂瀾。政治人物們是運氣來了碰一碰,見勢不妙撂挑子,或者見好就收、適可而止。

            The China-Japan relationship in the post-Suga period is generally believed to be more passive with little room for improvement and little chance of a turning point, a state further consolidated by Japan’s own institutional flaws. In Japan's unique political and cultural environment, even though everyone knows things are going in the wrong direction, nobody would stand up to call the shot, take the responsibility, and turn the tide. Politicians either only get involved when they believe there is something to gain and would jump ship the minute something goes wrong, or they just content themselves with what they have achieved without making any extra effort.

            如此形勢,亟需自民黨出現具有高度戰略眼光與政治智慧的政治家。放眼四顧,如此“大人物”似難尋覓。即便安倍,也更像是一個大“機會主義者”:“形勢所需”遠遠大于對公理與正義的追求和堅守。

            The LDP is in urgent need of a politician with strategic vision and political wisdom, a person that’s hard to find in current Japan. Even Shinzo Abe is more like an “opportunist”, whose desire to serve the time far outweighs the pursuit for equity and justice.

            日本政治精英及戰略界人士,一門心思琢磨“制華”。然而,過度制衡或遏制一個并無敵意的相鄰大國,最終引起的反噬損失,可能遠遠大于保持適度平衡戰略的收益。世界歷史上的大國悲劇,已經雄辯地證明了這一點。

            Political elites and strategists in Japan are racking their brains on how to contain China, but their obsession with countering or curbing a neighbor that holds no hostility will eventually backfire, when the consequences may overwhelm the gains they could have had by maintaining appropriate balance. The tragedy of major countries in world history has eloquently proved that.

            自民黨的黨政領導層,在1972年以來的中日關系歷史進程中做出過多次正確抉擇。實踐證明,這符合兩國的根本利益。當前日本政權的更替,至少在理論上提供了一個關系重置的機會。

            The LDP leaders have made the right choices many times regarding the China-Japan relations since 1972, and reality has proved that consistent with the fundamental interests of both countries. The introduction of a new administration in Japan would at least mean a chance to reset the relations.

            兩國關系是維持現狀或跌跌不休,還是止跌求穩、轉進改善?后者無疑艱難,卻是唯一正解。

            Will the bilateral relationship between the two countries stay where it is, keep falling, bottom out, or turn for the better? The last option is doubtlessly hard, but it’s the only right way forward.

            剛剛結束的東京奧運會期間,中日雙方并非沒有默契和善意,日方也在不同渠道表示配合北京冬奧會舉辦。明年將是中日邦交正?;?0周年,希望日方以政權更替為契機,守正革新,推動中日關系轉圜并健康穩定發展。

            Both sides showed a kind of tacit understanding and goodwill during the just-concluded Tokyo Olympic Games, and the Japanese side has expressed, through various channels, its willingness to support the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Next year will mark the 50th anniversary of the normalization of China-Japan diplomatic ties. Let’s hope Tokyo will seize the opportunity of the change of regime, steer to the right path, and take new steps to promote the healthy and steady development of China-Japan relations.

            (作者是中國社科院日本所副所長)

            (The author is deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

            輕觸這里,加載下一頁